march madness “first four” predictions

Thank God March Madness is finally upon us; I’ve been waiting since last April. Before the tournament can start though, we have a couple stragglers that need to finalize earning their spot in the best annual tournament in sports. The “first four” games are meant to give teams that lost their conference tournament a chance at participating in the post-season if they still had a good run on the year. I have my qualms with the selection process, seeing Auburn and St. John’s kicked out of the tourney feels wrong. Either way, let’s get into the games.

UMBC Retrievers vs. Howard Bison

Starting with UMBC, they have the better record at 21-8 as opposed to Howard’s 21-10. To be fair, they played less games so it’s not a better record, but better winning percentage. Unfortunately, that seems to be the only thing that UMBC has as an edge over Howard. Howard’s offense is performing slightly better, averaging 78 ppg vs. UMBC’s 76 ppg. This isn’t where the advantage lies however, as with most underdogs it’s the defense. Howard is ranked top 30 in the country in steals/game, and top 150 in blocks/game. UMBC is nowhere near this efficient defensively, scraping by in the top 350 and top 300, respectfully. This will keep UMBC struggling to find the bucket, especially with a lower performing offense - not just in points but distribution. Howard is top 50 in assists while UMBC sits at 295th). It’s also hard to ignore the presence Bryce Harris has for Howard, averaging 17.1 ppg / 6.9 rpg / 1.1bpg. As you can see UMBC doesn’t have much of an edge here, so I confidently give this game to the Bison. Both teams can still score, and with the stakes as high as they are I’d lean on it being a higher scoring game.

Moneyline: Howard (5/5)

Total: Over 140.5 (2.5/5)

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns

This game is poised to be much, much tighter - both teams with certain advantages that will help them out in this tough matchup. Texas has already won against NC State head-to-head, beating them by 5 at home. Although this matchup is being played at a neutral venue, that win is still significant in my book because it was at the tail end of a three-in-a-row stretch for Texas. Both teams finished with similar records, so it really comes down to the stats. Highly efficient offenses on both ends, Texas ranks 22nd and NCST 32nd. Texas also takes an advantage on the boards, averaging 35 per game while NCST only 32. An offensive and rebounding edge isn’t always enough though, especially with NC State’s powerful defense. They rank top 50 in steals and top 175 in blocks, while Texas falls back to just top 300 in both. NC State also does a better job sharing the ball, falling top 80 in assists per game while Texas is just top 300. For Texas it really just comes down to Dailyn Swain and if he can perform. 17.8 ppg / 7.6 rpg / 3.3 apg / 1.7 spg - I mean, that’s a pretty solid line for college ball. If he can control the boards and put up a dominating offensive performance, then Texas might be okay. Last time they played he was held to just 14, and NC State pulling out all the stops, I’m going to have to give the slight edge to NC State. The defense is just too secure, and their offense is still potent enough to outpace Texas. As far as the total, I think the fact that we have to top=tier offenses are going to show tonight. Texas’ defense is ASS, and NC State can exploit that - while Texas just has such a strong offense regardless.

Moneyline: NC State (2.5/5)

Total: Over 158.5 (4.5/5)

Prairie-View A&M Panthers vs. Lehigh Mountain Hawks

There are so many teams that deserve to be in the tournament over either of these guys… but whatever, Cinderella runs are what make this game so beautiful. Starting with Lehigh, they finished 15-16 on the season. PVAMU on the other hand, finished a painful 14-17… The though of either of these teams competing is nauseating. To be fair though, PVAMU went on an INSANE title run in their tournament and put on a show. PVAMU is top 90 in the country in scoring with 80 ppg, Lehigh with a weak 73 ppg. PVAMU’s defense is actually incredible, sitting at top 40 in both steals AND blocks. Lehigh is pretty average defensively, around 175th in both categories, a very blatant mismatch on one side of the ball. PVAMU also averages 31 rpg while Lehigh only 29, and although a minor difference, second-chance points can change a game. All-in-all neither of these teams really have a star, but they are well functioning units as a team and should battle pretty hard for the tournament spot. Statistically speaking, I think PVAMU has the momentum and the stats to upset Lehigh here. I also think the big mismatch between PVAMU’s offense and Lehigh’s defense is going to pace the game as a whole so I’m leaning on the Over.

Moneyline: PVAMU (4/5)

Total: Over 142.5 (3/5)

Miami-Ohio RedHawks vs. Southern Methodist University Mustangs

This matchup is crazy. Miami-OH lost in the first round of the postseason after going undefeated (31-0) as a team, and here they are. They could have had a clear ticket to the tournament but now you have to start by beating a great program like SMU. Although SMU finished 19-12, I think there’s a VERY clear difference in the conference both teams play in. Miami-OH is in the MAC, where the toughest opponent they have is UMass or Toledo. SMU competes in the ACC, along with Duke, FSU, UNC, Syracuse, Virginia… Need I go on? Miami-OH can put on a show offensively though, ranking 2nd nationally in points per game (91). SMU is still an elite producer though, top 20 in offense with 85 ppg. Both defenses are fairly even, but SMU’s is just a tad more consistent. As far as rebounding goes, that’s the biggest statistical discrepancy. SMU sits top 75 while Miami-OH is top 130. Look, Miami-OH are hurting right now after their embarrassing postseason exit to UMass, but a game against SMU is NOT an ego-booster. Especially when SMU has Boopie Miller running the court (18.6 ppg / 6.3 apg) and Samet Yigitoglu locking down the frontcourt (7.9 rpg / 1.3 bpg). No ReHawk can compete with these guys or put up these numbers on a season-long basis. I think SMU is going to come in and likely remind Miami-OH why they’re in the MAC. It’s going to be an extremely offensive game from both sides, as Miami-OH often forgets to play defense for 90% of their games. I’d expect the over to hit.

Moneyline: SMU (4.5/5)

Spread: SMU -6.5 (3.5/5)

Total: Over 164.5 (3.5/5)