world baseball classic final predictions - usa vs. venezuela

Baseball fans, get ready… To many it’s a normal Tuesday night, but for us it’s a showdown for the USA to be crowned the best nation in baseball for the next year. The best MLB players, split between two rosters representing their home countries. Team USA terrorizing their opponent’s game-in and game-out, and Venezuela defying the odds to be here.

GAME CONTEXT

• USA averages 7 runs per game, Venezuela averages 6.5. Similar HR totals between the two.

• Total is set at 8.5, the market expects a balance tonight.

• McLean is on a pitch limit (65-70)

• Venezuela heavily relied on their bullpen in the semifinals - arm fatigue.

BEST GAME PROPS

• Total: Over 8.5 → Two potent offenses, both with risks on the mound. McLean is on a short leash, and there is possibility of bullpen fatigue for Venezuela.

• Moneyline: United States → Better composure on the mound late in games so if they jump to an early lead, they can keep it safe.

BATTER PROPS

• Acuna 2+ Bases → Leads the tournament in runs scored, can constantly get into scoring position/beat out throws. Good lineup position.

• Luis Arraez 2+ H/R/RBI → Elite contact maker against a somewhat inexperienced pitcher.

• Maikel Garcia 2+ H/R/RBI → Leads the tournament in hits. Good lineup positioning to drive in runs.

• Aaron Judge 2+ Bases → Has good power vs lefties and can take advantage of a pitcher he knows.

• Bobby Witt Jr. 2+ H/R/RBI → At the top of the order with plenty of opportunity. Known for contact hitting and speed on the bases.

PITCHER PROPS

• Nolan McLean U4.5 K’s → Lack of experience against elite, powerful bats. He is also on a pitch-count limit already.

• Eduardo Rodriguez 5+ K’s → USA batters are more patient. Rodriguez can get more called strikes or miss power bats.

MOST LIKELY HOME RUN HITTER - AARON JUDGE

• Massive power vs left-handed pitchers.

• Rodriguez allows fly balls and hard contact when he’s behind in the count.

• Highest combination of barrel rate and exit velocity among all players playing tonight.

• He’s Aaron fucking Judge.

Can’t wait to see what goes on tonight, starting at 8pm EST. Hoping for a higher scoring game than we’ve gotten lately. Between the domination and power seen from team USA, and the pure heart and underdog mentality Venezuela has - this could be historic.