WBC Quarterfinal Predictions

Group/pool play in the World Baseball Classic is finally over, and as stressful as it was - it was a great watch. We are down to eight final teams, four games, only four nations moving forwards. Who will they be? Let’s take a look at the games and give our best predictions going forward.

Game 1: South Korea vs Dominican Republic —— DR Advance (Final Score: 6-2)

• Pitching Matchup: Christopher Sanchez (DR) vs Hyun Jin Ryu (KOR)

  Sanchez is an elite MLB pitcher, finishing 2nd in NL Cy Young voting for 2025. He had 212 Ks on the season, with an ERA of 2.0. Expect him to take advantage of a weaker offense (.270 team BA) and have 5-6 strikeouts.

• Offensive Ability

  The DR has a very high batting average at .340, and this doesn’t fair well for Jin Ryun. He is a veteran pitcher; who’s strength is inducing weak contact - but against a team who’s making contact so frequently this isn’t enough. Expect the DR to take advantage of this.

  The exact opposite is likely for Korea. They make limited contact, hence the lower average, and against a pitcher like Sanchez who pumps strikeouts they need to be strong at the plate.

Game 2: USA vs Canada —— USA Advance (Final Score: 8-2)

• Pitching Matchup: Logan Webb (USA) vs Michael Soroka (CAN)

  Webb is another elite MLB pitcher who had a great WBC outing against Brazil in the pool stage. Soroka is a weaker MLB pitcher who will be throwing against many of his former opponents who know his game and can take advantage of that.

• Game Flow

  I expect Webb to take control early on and limit scoring, and Team USA is likely to start a little slow against a still-MLB-grade pitcher. The first 3 innings will likely start slow, but the US will pick up the pace and close out Canada.

  Canada has a good but modest offense that will struggle to match the pace of the US, also trying to redeem themselves after their performance against Italy.

Game 3: Puerto Rico vs Italy —— Italy Advance (Final Score: 5-3)

• Pitching Matchup: Seth Lugo (PR) vs TBD (ITA)

  Although unannounced the likely pitcher for Italy will be Aaron Nola or Michael Lorenzen. Either way, both of these players can limit runs with lots of MLB experience. Although PR has a strong offense, they may run into trouble against the strong Italian pitchers.

• Italy’s Offense

  Italy has shown they have a thoroughly potent offense through pool-play. Combined with the fact that Lugo has trouble shutting down batters and strides for weak contacts to record his outs, it could mean Italy is going to the semifinals

Game 4: Venezuela vs Japan —— Japan Advance (Final Score: 6-4)

• Pitching Matchup: Ranger Suarez (VEN) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (JAP)

  Yamamoto is undeniably a top MLB pitcher, if not the best performer last season. He is going to seriously give the Venezuelan side some trouble early in the game - establishing control. Ranger Suarez is also a very good MLB pitcher, well-established. This game is likely to start slow, but once the starters are pulled we should see some offense.

• Early Innings = Difference Maker

  I think that if Yamamoto is sharp, and Japan can tack on even one or two runs in the early stages it will secure them the game. Once the 5th inning starts, it will be an offensive battle, and that early advantage will likely take them to the semifinals.