2026 MLB Season predictions and future bets
Well guys, it is FINALLY here - the 2026 MLB season kicks off tonight with a matchup between the Yankees and Giants. There are plenty of considerations when placing season-long future bets, and many exciting changes this year. The new ABS system, quality rookies and draft class, big trades and signings… it’s all set up to be an 8-month long movie. We have taken multiple categories and compiled our best predictions and bets going forward with the season, so let’s stop stalling and get into it!
HOME RUNS PREDICTIONS
There are a few different types of statistics that we’ll cover here for batters, but the most obvious are Home Run’s - the biggest facet to an exciting ballgame. Here is our estimate as to who will finish atop the power hitting ranks.
Top 10 Home Run Hitters
Aaron Judge (52) - The best raw power and an elite barrel %. Yankee stadium is familiar to him, and hitter friendly. He also has a good roster of guys to maximize plate appearances.
Shohei Ohtani (50) - Averages 47 HR per season over the last 5 seasons. Dodger stadium is very hitter friendly, and another elite roster.
Kyle Schwarber (47) - Naturally good at pulling the ball and getting height on his hits and has one of the highest HR/FB Citizens Bank Park favors lefty batters.
Cal Raleigh (45) - Coming off breakout/record-breaking season, switch hitter with elite pull. Still expect some regression.
Juan Soto (43) - Insane plate discipline, elite batter and in his physical prime. High OBP boosting plate appearances.
Pete Alonso (42) - Consistent power-batting profile. Elite pull power and durability.
Yordan Alvarez (41) - When healthy, he’s a top-3 hitter in Hard Hit %. Injury risks keep him a bit lower than others.
Matt Olson (40) - Has 50+ HR seasons throughout career, lineup placement giving him constant opportunities.
Junior Caminero (38) - Rising superstar profile. Could be the “Cal Raleigh” of this year.
Nick Kurtz (37) - Calling it now, he’s a young guy with MASSIVE raw power. If he stays healthy and plays up to his expectations, he’ll be a top 10 threat.
Honorable Mentions: Brent Rooker, Fernando Tatis Jr, Bobby Witt Jr, Rafael Devers
BATTER HIT PREDICTIONS
A somewhat slept on future, but much easier to pick out the winners and high value. Lots of our leagues most elite batters are known simply for their pure ability to put the ball in play and get on base, this list is our top 10 players that can be that guy.
Top 10 Recorded Hits
Luis Arraez (221) - Best at pure contact. Sub-10% strikeout rate, and consistent BABIP ratings. Can regularly put the ball into play.
Bobby Witt Jr. (215) - Elite baserunning speed, as well as volume and contact. Rarely misses games, his ceiling is extremely high.
Freddie Freeman (213) - Regularly among the league’s leaders. High line-drive rate, not a power-driven hitter but gets opportunities due to lineup.
Steven Kwan (210) - Can get the bat on the ball extremely well, one of the lowest strikeout rates league-wide. Leadoff batter maximizes plate appearances.
Mookie Betts (208) - Good contact and power combination, batting near the top of the lineup. Consistent on yearly basis.
Trea Turner (206) - Unreal speed can create extra opportunity. Historically sits around the top of the league and has a high BABIP rating.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (203) - Consistent hard and powerful contact. Massive improvement year-to-year.
Jose Altuve (201) - Slight regression due to age, but leadoff batter and history still fit the profile.
Corey Seager (199) - High line-drive rates and great at pulling contact. Big durability risk but great if healthy.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (198) - Could also place as high as first on the list, but too volatile. Extreme power and speed combo.
Possible Breakouts: Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson, CJ Abrams, Bo Bichette
BATTER RBI PREDICTIONS
This may seem redundant considering we went over hits and home runs already; however this is actually one of the harder angles to predict. It fully relies on teammate OBP’s, lineup placement for the batter, let alone their ability to hit the ball. Let’s break this down.
Top 10 Recorded RBI’s
Matt Olson (138) - The Braves lineup is so stacked it’s probably one of the best environments to drive in runners. Hit’s clean-up.
Aaron Judge (134) - Yankees lineup has improved, giving him more baserunners. Somewhat limited due to intentional walks.
Yordan Alvarez (132) - Hit’s in a prime RBI slot in the lineup, and Houston has consistent baserunners.
Shohei Ohtani (130) - Constant traffic on the bases, hit’s mid-order. Somewhat limited again due to intentional walking.
Pete Alonso (128) - One of the most consistent RBI producers in the MLB. Mets offense occasionally struggles as a unit.
Freddie Freeman (125) - Efficient at converting chances, and again the Dodgers lineup boost.
Juan Soto (123) - More chances than earlier years in his career. Stronger lineup. Somewhat limited by intentional walks.
Kyle Schwarber (121) - Massive HR threat. Phillies have a deep lineup, but his lower OBP compared to the others keeps him at eight.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr (120) - Specifically stronger with runners in position, and Toronto is looking to rebound after a tough World Series loss.
Corey Seager (118) - Elite situational hitter when healthy. Rangers’ lineup is still pretty solid.
Possible Breakouts: Bobby Witt Jr, Gunnar Henderson, Adolis Garcia, Julio Rodriguez
BATTER STOLEN BASES
This is an extremely volatile statistic and definitely the most difficult to predict for batters, but it’s just so much FUN. Anyways, there’s always a couple guys we know have the speed to take over the infield - but there’s always a couple sleepers that poke their head out every season
Top 10 Stolen Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. (66) - The Braves are aggressive on the bases, and he may be the fastest player in the entire league.
Corbin Carroll (61) - Another one of the fastest players out there. Has a high attempt rate for base-stealing. Diamondbacks are active runners.
Bobby Witt Jr. (58) - Massive volume, rarely misses games. Elite instincts and top speed. Royals are slowly becoming more aggressive as they improve.
CJ Abrams (55) - Pure speed profile. Nationals let him do what he wants on the bases.
Elly De La Cruz (53) - Commonly accepted as the fastest player in the league… right now. Slightly limited by inconsistent OBP.
Julio Rodriguez (49) - Power/speed double-threat. Mariners are increasing aggression. Goes through spurts of high OBP - increasing stolen bases.
Esteury Ruiz (47) - Average OBP but an elite attempt rate. One of the better baserunners in a technical sense.
Trea Turner (45) - Veteran knowledge with the physical ability. High contact, lots of opportunities.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (43) - Not a pure stealer, but a pure athlete. Padres are green-lighting him more.
Brice Turang (41) - Sneaky speed with an improving bat. Brewers are a more aggressive team.
Possible Breakouts: Anthony Volpe, Jackson Holliday, Zack Gelof, Oneil Cruz
PITCHER STRIKEOUT PREDICTIONS
Here we go, this is some more of the good stuff. There are some pitchers out there who can absolutely juice the ball, and It’s hard to say for sure who is going to be able to pound the zone every night. Either way, let’s talk about who’s truly going to terrorize batters this season.
Top 10 Strikeouts
Tarik Skubal (232) - Easy pick, everyone has the same consensus. Pitches deep into games, lasts long on the mound. Fully healthy, no restrictions.
Paul Skenes (224) - Best raw talent, especially considering limited experience. Slight risk due to limiting pitches.
Garrett Crochet (221) - Elite swing-and-miss pitcher. Some durability and longevity concerns.
Dylan Cease (205) - Elite strikeout accumulator. Allowed higher pitch counts, solid 200+ option.
Logan Gilbert (192) - Although he has a lower strikeout rate, he has extreme durability and pitching volume.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (191) - Adjusted to the MLB fully, elite command during games. Known for limiting runs, but Dodgers may limit him as well.
Jesus Luzardo (190) - Very strong whiff profile, elite as long as Phillies keep him in rotation.
Logan Webb (187) - Incredible at suppressing contact regularly. Experienced pitcher.
Chris Sale (184) - Slight regression due to age and injuries, but still one of the better strikeout-based pitchers.
Cole Ragans AND Bryan Woo (195) - Breakout abilities, highly sustainable on the mound. Good swing-and-miss pitchers. Absolute workhorses.
Honorable Mentions: Hunter Greene (injured), Zack Wheeler (injured), Jacob deGrom, Spencer Strider (injured), Christopher Sanchez, Freddy Peralta, Joe Ryan
PITCHER WIN PREDICTIONS
Pitchers themselves obviously have a record, exemplifying how their team does specifically in the games when they open up on the mound. This is obviously directly impacted by how good the team is but also shows their direct impact on the team. Let’s take a look at the elite pitchers who will also win their team games from the mound.
14+ Win Pitchers
Garret Crochet, Tarik Skubal, Max Fried
13+ Win Pitchers
Christopher Sanchez, Framber Valdez, Paul Skenes, Logan Webb, Bryan Woo
12+ Win Pitchers
Jesus Luzardo, Zac Gallen, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, George Kirby, Freddy Peralta, Kevin Gausman
TEAM RECORD AND PLAYOFF STATUS PREDICTIONS
Now we are going to start evaluating these teams as a unit, talking about their likelihood of making the playoffs. We’ll be ranking them by their anticipated record win count and providing a percentage chance that they make it into the postseason. Let’s take a look at the “Top 10” teams in the MLB.
LA Dodgers (103-106 Wins) - 95% Likely - NL WEST WINNERS
Best rotation and roster depth (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, etc). Extremely weak NL West division.
Atlanta Braves (98-101 Wins) - 90% Likely - NL EAST WINNERS
Elite offense, often among league leaders in “run differential”. Tougher division but still a high floor.
Philadelphia Phillies (95-98 Wins) - 85% Likely
Deep rotation and deep bullpen allow consistency. Tough division, but still favorable schedule. Could end up with Wild Card placement.
Chicago Cubs (94-97 Wins) - 82% Likely - NL CENTRAL WINNERS
Weak NL Central gives them a huge edge. They also have a deep, balanced roster.
New York Yankees (92-95 Wins) - 78% Likely - AL EAST WINNER
Roster full of elite talent. AL East schedule hurts their win total, but still good odds of playoffs.
New York Mets (91-94 Wins) - 75% Likely
Really tough division, but a very balanced and deep squad as well. Can still pull of a Wild Card spot if another team wins the division.
Seattle Mariners (90-93 Wins) - 72% Likely - AL WEST WINNERS
Elite pitching infrastructure. Offense is consistently improving, and their division is good but not worrisome.
Toronto Blue Jays (89-92 Wins) - 65% Likely
Although a great team, the difficulty of their schedule and their competitive division can hurt them.
Detroit Tigers (88-91 Wins) - 70% Likely - AL CENTRAL WINNER
Rising offensive roster, and an ace on the mound in Skubal. AL Central division looks bleak so there is a big advantage.
Baltimore Orioles (87-90 Wins) - 62% Likely
Young and explosive core. Still run into that issue of AL East scheduling.
Honorary Mentions: Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros, San Diego Padres
MY BEST FUTURE BETS
Shohei Ohtani - Race to 10 HR
Vlad Guerrero Jr, Juan Soto - 40+ HR
Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez, Fernando Tatis Jr - 35+ HR
NY Yankees Win AL East
Seattle Mariners Win AL West
Chicago Cubs Win NL Central
Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins - To Make Playoffs
Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs - 90+ Wins
Hunter Brown - 200+ K’s
Max Fried, Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 14+ Wins
Bobby Witt Jr - 190+ Hits
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 30+ Stolen Bases