MARCH MADNESS Sweet-16 Power rankings
The first two rounds of March Madness have been nothing short of amazing, and we could be in for some real history this year. There are multiple powerhouses left on the board, some crazy underdogs that have been overperforming, multiple teams reaching this deep in the tournament after a program drought. There have been upsets we never saw coming, and mid-tier teams that have been playing like an ACC champion. Let’s rank the top 10 remaining teams after two rounds, seeing where momentum has swung our last teams standing.
#16 - St. John’s Red Storm
They had a dominant win in the first round against a much weaker Northern Iowa team, taking home a commanding 26-point victory. They dominated both sides of the ball, but as we saw with Florida - what you do against a shit team means nothing. Their free throw percentages have been rough, and those are opportunities they can’t afford to waste against Duke of all teams. They barely scratched 50% in their narrow win over Kansas, and they got out-defended. They were good at forcing turnovers, but that’s the only real good takeaway from this game. I don’t think they can hold their own against great teams, and that’s exactly what they are up against in Duke. I’d say they have the least likely chance of winning, but that’s not to say they hadn’t performed well so far.
#15 - Arkansas Razorbacks
This might piss a lot of people off, and it kind of pisses me off too because I’ve been a huge Acuff fan this season, but it’s honestly realistic. Their two wins have come against Hawai’i and High Point, and although they played very, very well - it’s not enough preparation for Arizona. I think they will keep it real close, both offenses extremely fast-paced and full of prolific scorers, but I don’t think they have the resume in this tournament to be put much higher. Especially when they hadn’t truly dominated a game yet. Either way, I’ll be rooting for them.
#14 - Nebraska Cornhuskers
Honestly, they’ve played pretty solid basketball, but they have their issues. They dominated their first game against Troy, albeit it was Troy, but they also played well against Vanderbilt in the second round. They established control of the tempo and made everyone aware it was their game - it was just a very close one. Still though, their good percentages alone won’t carry them - certainly not against an Iowa team who’s rolling after their last victory. They don’t have the defensive tenacity or rebounding presence that they need to truly be comfortable in the next round. They had ZERO blocks against Vanderbilt, so I definitely question their defensive presence.
#13 - Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee has had as dominating of a start to this tournament as a 6 seed can. They took down a tough 11-seed team in Miami-OH, undefeated on their season through the MAC, by 22 points. They went on to play the 3rd seed, Virginia, and shocked everyone with an upset. That ride of momentum, making it as a 6-seed into the sweet-16, will be huge as they take on a tough Iowa State team. Unfortunately though, I just don’t see it panning out for them in the next round. Iowa State is one of the tougher forces in this tournament, and they have lost many games this season to teams of a similar caliber.
#12 - Texas Longhorns
Now this underdog has really shocked us all, through both rounds. They barely made the tournament, being forced to play in the “First Four” against NC State. They scraped away with a win, but that was the least impressive part. They beat a BYU squad lead by Dybantsa, and furthermore sent 3-seed Gonzaga home packing. They dominated that game against BYU, never giving up their lead or control on the court. They also put up really solid percentages against Gonzaga who is often known for limiting their opponents offensively. Coming up against a FIRING Purdue squad will be tough, but they’ve shown that that’s what they live for.
#11 - UConn Huskies
You may be surprised to see them so low here, but I have a couple reasons for keeping them out of the top 10. They haven’t seen serious enough competition. Period. They went up against Furman initially, and almost lost it before they had a late scoring spurt to put it away 82-71. Their shooting against a 15-seed was absolutely horrid, their defensive pressure also lackluster. Moving on, UCLA was also a very mild opponent for them. And although they had no problem putting them away, it just wasn’t impressive. Sure their defense and percentages bounced back, but it was against a team that has had a pretty mediocre season. I think going from these two to Michigan State is going to be a rude awakening.
#10 - Arizona Wildcats
Our first team to crack the top 10 is Arizona. It might be a surprise to see them in the bottom half of this list, maybe they should be a little higher. There are just too many other factors for that, the most obvious being lack of competition. They started off the bracket against possibly the easiest opponent in Long Island, and didn’t shock anyone with their victory. Pitted against Utah State though, they suffered. Their percentages took a dip, they weren’t pressuring the ball, they wasted chances at the line - all against a 9-seed. Utah State was playing pretty solid, but nothing incredible. This has me thinking they could have a tough time matching the offensive efficiency that Acuff and the Razorbacks have put forward.
#9 - Michigan State Spartans
To finish the bottom half of our list we have the wildly talented Spartans squad. Their first game against North Dakota State was one of the most impressive performances of the first round and it went wildly under the radar. When put up against a tougher opponent in Louisville, they didn’t disappoint. Their percentages were solid, their rebounding was good and their defensive pressure was great. They took home the game by 8, and have been primed by playing better teams through these first two rounds. They are pitted next against UConn, who I think they are going to surprise as I mentioned earlier. The only thing keeping them out of the top half is that they haven’t created much momentum - just performed a bit better than expected.
#8 - Iowa State Cyclones
First off, tournament aside, they finished their season with a 2-point loss to the best team in the country through the regular season. That alone proves that they can compete against anyone. In the first round they had an easier opponent in Tennessee State, but to put up 108 total points is still a statement game. They jumped out to a 55-29 lead in the first half, showing they can come out the gates hot. They went on to play Kentucky, and although they had a bit of a lsower start, after their halftime adjustments they fully took over. Their percentages have been great, and rebounding/defending has been solid through two rounds as well.
#7 - Iowa Hawkeyes
This team has certainly turned some heads with two big upsets, and will definitely be carrying that momentum into the next round. They took down Clemson, relying on rebounding but that was really the story for them. They didn’t pop anywhere else. Looking at the Florida game though? Forget about it. This team can HUSTLE. They can win the rebounding game against anyone, they can get on hot scoring streaks, and they can limit turnovers. All of these are big factors moving forward against Nebraska - a less experienced but still strong team. If there’s a way for a 9-seed to make it into the Elite 8, that’s it.
#6 - Illinois Fighting Illini
These boys can ball, seriously ball. They embarrassed UPenn in the first round, winning by over 30. They put up 105 points as a team on some pretty unreal percentages. They also nearly secured 50 rebounds as a team, posting over 40 per game as a team through the first two. Round two came against VCU, who was undeniably a tough opponent after they sent UNC home in the first round and came back form quite a deficit to do it. Illinois didn’t seem to care, still crashing the boards and finding the net with their shots. They have a much tougher opponent defensively against Houston this upcoming round, a game that will likely be the closest among the next 8.
#5 - Houston Cougars
Houston’s obviously a top-5 team in this tournament, their defensive presence unmatchable in college basketball. They have let up an average of 52 points per game in the first two rounds, and although one opponent was Idaho - the other was Texas A&M. 4 blocks and 6 steals per game, 43 rebounds per game, and their percentages are on point. They have a very tough matchup against Illinois, one of the harder offenses to stifle thus far, but they can take this. As long as they keep pressuring the ball and shooting well. A huge factor for them has also been a massive lack of turnovers, not giving opponents to capitalize on momentum-gaining runs.
#4 - Alabama Crimson Tide
I feel like I tried to warn y’all that these guys were dangerous, and they’ve shown exactly that through two games. Putting up 90 on Hofstra is one thing, but to do it again against Texas Tech is wild. That’s against a team with an All-American First-Teamer, but that doesn’t matter to Bama. These guys have been shooting the ball phenomenally well, and they have been winning all the rebounding battles thus far. Their defense is also very good at timing plays, knowing how to pressure but not foul. Visiting Michigan in the next round is the toughest matchup they could have drawn, but if one team will take down Michigan - it’s Alabama.
#3 - Duke Blue Devils
Duke is not only one of the best teams in the nation this year, but it’s probably the best program in college basketball. These guys kept it way too close for comfort against Siena in the first round, but I think that was just them taking it easy thinking it would be a walk in the park. A lot of their starting roster hadn’t competed at this level before, the nature of Siena’s gameplay may have caught them off-guard. Other than their 3-point percentage and defensive pressure, it wasn’t a terrible game. On the other hand, they were incredible against TCU. Percentages were all spot-on, they smoked the rebounding battle, and they managed to pressure the ball much better. I think they will be able to handle business no problem against St. John’s next round.
#2 Purdue Boilermakers
If you told me at the start of this tournament that Purdue would be this high on my list, I’d have called you crazy. In my opinion this team has always been overrated, even for the years and years preceding this season. Unfortunately, I can’t push that narrative anymore. Queens was an obviously easier opponent, but they handled business with meaning. They shot over 60% from the field and over 50% from three, you try beating that. They also out rebounded Queens by 20, commanding control of the game. Again against Miami they shot over 50% from both the field and from three, also going 22/23 from the free-throw line. If there is any team that can find the bucket right now, it’s Purdue. Miami was still a very solid opponent too, keeping them below 70 was a solid defensive showing. They have a big advantage against Texas, but I’m hoping they don’t waste it. They can seriously outscore this team.
#1 Michigan Wolverines
This really shouldn’t be a surprise. Not only are they averaging nearly 100 ppg through the first two rounds, they are holding their opponents to 80 or less. Howard was one of the better low-seeded teams and they definitely underestimated them, but after halftime they blew them out in just 20 minutes. Saint Louis had recently embarrassed Georgia, putting up over 100 points. They were held to a mere 72 by Michigan though, losing by 23 points. Michigan has nearly doubled all of their opponents rebounding, and they have consistently great shooting. Lead by the likes of Yaxel Lendeborg, I really like them to keep it rolling against a fast-paced Alabama team. It will be the hardest matchup they have this whole tournament, but if they can win this the title might be theirs.